Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BF 0xbfb4…446a other 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$13 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate51%62W / 60L
Whale WR32%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$223
7 days−$174
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$300
economics 15% −$189
crypto 15% −$2
sports 12% −$124
politics 11% +$24
world 10% −$152
tech 6% +$38
finance 1% +$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -7.8% -16.6% 48% 48% -17.5%
≤30d 40 -1.2% -10.6% 50% 50% -8.1%
≤90d 48 -9.6% -18.2% 46% 44% -14.3%
all 122 -1.6% -11.0% 51% 34% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 34% -9.4%
10% -19.5% 25% -18.0%
15% -27.3% 20% -26.0%
20% -34.4% 13% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 32% (≥$503) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$31 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses62 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage248d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 −$50 -49%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 −$67 -66%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $144 −$111 -77%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$56 +55%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $36 +$24 +68%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 −$34 -33%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$42 -41%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$11 +22%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $38 −$33 -87%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$25 +25%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $53 +$41 +78%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $100 +$60 +60%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $78 −$45 -58%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $116 +$34 +29%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $87 +$63 +73%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $82 −$64 -78%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $70 −$69 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $102 +$36 +36%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $56 −$44 -79%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 +$28 +95%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $53 +$47 +90%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$71 -70%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $59 −$36 -61%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$100 +100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 −$10 -10%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$58 +57%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 +$44 +43%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 +$15 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$97 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $133 −$105 -79%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $24 +$18 +76%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 10 $7 −$7 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 28 $9 +$1 +16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Mar 28 $33 $0 -1%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 25 $169 −$61 -36%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February? Mar 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Mar 25 $150 −$150 -100%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Mar 25 $503 +$41 +8%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $81 −$14 -17%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January? Jan 29 $282 +$90 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $101 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $101 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 34¢ $51 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $34 18h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 17¢ $33 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 33h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 72¢ $144 33h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $156 34h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 59¢ $36 37h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 46¢ $68 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $61 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $102 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 87¢ $61 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $50 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 68¢ $46 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 68¢ $56 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over $5 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over $0 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 38¢ $32 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 38¢ $6 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $100 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 94¢ $94 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 74¢ $26 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $53 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 13¢ $8 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $8 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.