Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:34:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfb4…c563 crypto 142 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (106 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$360 (-10%) realized −$350 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%72W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day106.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$417
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (106 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -19.2% -26.9% 51% 50% -20.2%
≤30d 141 -19.2% -26.9% 51% 50% -20.2%
≤90d 141 -19.2% -26.9% 51% 50% -20.2%
all 141 -19.2% -26.9% 51% 50% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover106.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 50% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -33.9% 35% -27.8%
15% -40.3% 28% -34.8%
20% -46.2% 23% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$20 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$350
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses72 / 69
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage7d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day106.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Up 61¢ 44¢ $36 $26 −$10 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $55 +$20 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $57 +$18 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $58 −$57 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$7 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$36 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$41 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $44 +$32 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $38 +$21 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $46 +$12 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $63 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $35 +$41 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$9 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $58 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $64 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $19 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $38 +$39 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $39 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $46 +$29 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $33 +$27 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $48 +$27 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $29 +$40 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$16 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.02 · official $27.19 · 802 history records