Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:28:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BF 0xbfb4…96ed weather 243 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate95%229W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$13
14 days+$24
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% −$68
sports 5% +$54
world 2% +$29
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +8.0% -2.3% 100% 22% -7.5%
≤30d 40 +7.1% -3.1% 98% 12% -13.3%
≤90d 152 +3.1% -6.7% 98% 5% -9.5%
all 242 +2.0% -7.7% 95% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 8% -9.5%
10% -16.6% 2% -18.1%
15% -24.6% 2% -26.0%
20% -32.0% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$27 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses229 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)242 / 243
History coverage141d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Australia (-1.5) United States 96¢ 100¢ $95 $99 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 18 $93 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $90 +$3 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $81 +$1 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $86 $0 +0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $57 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $21 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $58 +$2 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $78 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 6? Jun 06 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $45 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 05 $70 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $68 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $66 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $62 +$5 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 30? May 29 $58 +$2 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 29? May 29 $208 −$208 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 29? May 29 $180 +$4 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 28? May 28 $262 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 27? May 27 $219 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $13 +$17 +133%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 26? May 27 $5 +$5 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on May 26? May 27 $11 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 27? May 27 $86 +$3 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 26? May 27 $108 +$9 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on May 26? May 26 $77 +$3 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 24? May 25 $9 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 19? May 25 $195 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on May 24? May 24 $22 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on May 23? May 23 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 23? May 23 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 22? May 22 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on May 22? May 22 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 17? May 21 $46 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 18? May 21 $17 +$1 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 16? May 19 $30 +$2 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 18? May 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 17? May 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 18? May 17 $93 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 16? May 17 $40 +$6 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May May 17 $69 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 17? May 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May May 17 $45 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May May 16 $54 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY United States 96¢ $95 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 97¢ $93 25h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $90 4d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 71¢ $2 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $81 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $86 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $59 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $27 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $57 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $56 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $82 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $83 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $82 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $58 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $21 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 99¢ $78 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $77 13d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 6? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 13d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 6? BUY Yes 99¢ $76 13d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $27 13d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $51 13d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 6? BUY No 93¢ $7 14d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 6? BUY No 88¢ $39 14d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $17 14d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 6? BUY No 98¢ $10 14d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $71 14d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $70 15d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $70 15d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4? BUY No 96¢ $68 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.91 · official $98.81 (match) · 611 history records