Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:17:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfb6…2850 crypto 313 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$415 (-10%) realized −$424 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%109W / 191L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$45
14 days−$147
30 days−$412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$408
other 3% −$28
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -14.8% -22.9% 28% 28% -26.9%
≤30d 160 -19.9% -27.5% 38% 38% -23.9%
≤90d 300 -12.4% -20.7% 36% 36% -20.1%
all 300 -12.4% -20.7% 36% 36% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 36% -20.1%
10% -28.3% 27% -27.7%
15% -35.3% 18% -34.7%
20% -41.6% 17% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$424
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses109 / 191
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)300 / 313
History coverage40d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 38¢ 84¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+122%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 188 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$17 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $35 −$33 -95%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$21 +488%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$9 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$12 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$36 +254%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$35 +172%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$11 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 08 $38 −$37 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 07 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 06 $15 −$14 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 06 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 06 $39 +$11 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $41 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 01 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 01 $48 +$8 +18%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 01 $36 −$35 -98%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 01 $38 −$38 -99%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 31 $40 −$40 -99%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 30 $13 +$37 +277%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 30 $39 +$11 +27%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 29 $42 −$42 -99%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 29 $9 −$8 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 29 $38 +$12 +33%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 29 $43 +$7 +17%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 28 $11 +$39 +335%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 28 $41 +$9 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 28 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 26 $10 −$9 -95%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 25 $9 +$31 +351%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $10 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $12 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $12 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.66 · official $141.67 (match) · 573 history records