Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbfb8…9cf4
other · 35 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,171 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,420 · open −$719
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$26,490
Realized−$1,420
Unrealized−$719
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions11
Markets (closed)24 / 35
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1,292
Trades / day34.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%
Chart Positions 11 History 24 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,047
7 days−$1,420
14 days−$1,420
30 days−$1,420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? No 98¢ 98¢ $8,000 $8,011 +$11 (+0%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $6,000 $5,898 −$102 (-2%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 81¢ $6,000 $5,784 −$216 (-4%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 78¢ $2,500 $2,223 −$277 (-11%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1,539 $1,543 +$5 (+0%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $1,070 $1,044 −$26 (-2%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 74¢ $800 $713 −$87 (-11%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $634 $626 −$9 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $550 $547 −$3 (-1%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 72¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Team WE 42¢ $230 $0 −$230 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ $2,675 $0 −$2,675 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $16 +$6 +39%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $252 −$12 -5%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $151 −$3 -2%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $299 −$11 -4%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $101 −$8 -8%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $252 +$62 +24%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$33 +107%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,030 +$622 +60%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7,593 +$1,075 +14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,942 −$3,672 -93%
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $102 −$10 -10%
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $102 −$12 -12%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $554 −$230 -41%
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $20 $0 -2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $230 $0 -0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $197 +$23 +12%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $207 −$6 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $51 −$3 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $146 +$113 +77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,245 +$520 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 98% −$1,923
sports 2% −$216
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 98¢ $22 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $640 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $553 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $240 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $148 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $520 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $285 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $91 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $191 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $198 6h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $93 6h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $99 6h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $2 6h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 70¢ $16 6h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 72¢ $16 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $31 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $371 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $313 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $63 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $252 7h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 71¢ $282 7h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $287 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 9h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $8,006 9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,652 9h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $7,640 9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,030 11h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 83¢ $1,028 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +8.8% -1.6% 38% 38% -12.0%
≤30d 24 +8.8% -1.6% 38% 38% -12.0%
≤90d 24 +8.8% -1.6% 38% 38% -12.0%
all 24 +8.8% -1.6% 38% 38% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover34.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 38% -12.0%
10% -11.0% 29% -20.5%
15% ← realistic here -19.6% 25% -28.1%
20% -27.5% 17% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,490.47 · official $26,491.18 (match) · 108 history records