Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:48:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfb8…fb8b weather 266 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$89 (+4%) realized +$111 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate81%214W / 50L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 93% +$76
crypto 7% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 147 +5.4% -4.6% 89% 29% -5.8%
all 264 +1.9% -7.8% 81% 27% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 27% -6.2%
10% -16.6% 12% -15.2%
15% -24.7% 8% -23.4%
20% -32.1% 6% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$111
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses214 / 50
Open positions2
Markets (closed)264 / 266
History coverage100d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 21? No 88¢ 82¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? Yes 89¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 2? May 02 $17 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 2? May 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 70°F or higher on May 1? May 02 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 1? May 01 $10 +$8 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 29 Apr 30 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 28? Apr 29 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 28 Apr 29 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 86°F or higher on April 26? Apr 27 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 26 Apr 27 $19 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 25? Apr 25 $15 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 25? Apr 25 $15 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 24? Apr 25 $7 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 24? Apr 25 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 24? Apr 25 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 24? Apr 24 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 24? Apr 24 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 24? Apr 24 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 24? Apr 24 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ap Apr 24 $15 +$4 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 23 Apr 24 $15 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 23? Apr 24 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ap Apr 24 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 23? Apr 23 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on April 23? Apr 23 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 18? Apr 23 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ap Apr 19 $15 +$3 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 17? Apr 17 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ap Apr 16 $30 −$7 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 15? Apr 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 15? Apr 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 14? Apr 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 14 Apr 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 14 Apr 15 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 14? Apr 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on Apr Apr 14 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on April 13? Apr 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 12 Apr 13 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 11 Apr 12 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ap Apr 12 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 11? Apr 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 9? Apr 10 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ap Apr 09 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 8? Apr 09 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on April 7? Apr 08 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 7? Apr 08 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 6? Apr 07 $16 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on April 6? Apr 06 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 6? Apr 06 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 6? Apr 06 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 6? Apr 06 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 2? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 49d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 2? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 50d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 2? BUY Yes 85¢ $0 50d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 2? BUY No 88¢ $20 50d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 70°F or higher on May 1? SELL No 100¢ $21 50d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 1? SELL No 95¢ $18 50d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 1? BUY No 52¢ $10 51d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 70°F or higher on May 1? BUY No 94¢ $20 51d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 29 SELL No 100¢ $44 52d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 29 BUY No 96¢ $20 52d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 29 BUY No 88¢ $20 53d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 28 BUY No 93¢ $20 53d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 28? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 53d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 86°F or higher on April 26? BUY No 95¢ $5 55d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 86°F or higher on April 26? BUY No 96¢ $10 55d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 26 BUY Yes 93¢ $19 55d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 57d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 25? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 57d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 25? BUY Yes 87¢ $15 57d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 25? BUY Yes 90¢ $15 57d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 24? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 58d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 24? BUY No 91¢ $5 58d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 24? BUY No 93¢ $10 58d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 24? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 58d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 24? BUY No 96¢ $20 58d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 24? SELL No 100¢ $5 58d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 58d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 24? SELL No 100¢ $10 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.85 · official $27.89 (match) · 687 history records