Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfb8…d90a other 192 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$106 (+2%) realized +$144 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%62W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$507now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$19
14 days−$12
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 28% −$177
politics 24% +$107
other 20% −$95
sports 10% +$31
tech 9% +$91
world 9% −$33
culture 0% $0
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -20.3% -27.9% 35% 31% -7.4%
≤30d 63 -24.1% -31.3% 33% 30% -11.8%
≤90d 113 -22.9% -30.2% 37% 32% -0.3%
all 172 -26.2% -33.2% 36% 33% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 33% -9.6%
10% -39.6% 28% -18.2%
15% -45.4% 25% -26.1%
20% -50.8% 19% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$14 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$507
Realized+$144
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses62 / 110
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions18
Markets (closed)172 / 192
History coverage151d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 69¢ 96¢ $100 $139 +$39 (+39%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 85¢ 85¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 52¢ 70¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+36%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 73¢ 62¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 43¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 36¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-33%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 76¢ 30¢ $30 $12 −$18 (-61%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 72¢ 32¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-55%)
Will Portugal be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 34¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-57%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 39¢ 9¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-77%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 19 $51 +$19 +37%
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -37%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $10 −$5 -50%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $30 +$16 +54%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$3 -65%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $21 +$7 +36%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $21 +$56 +271%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +58%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $41 +$40 +99%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 +$15 +73%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $30 +$6 +19%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$43 +85%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -28%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -46%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$42 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$11 +206%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 −$8 -83%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$30 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $101 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $69 1h
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 2h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 3¢ $1 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 4¢ $4 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 89¢ $47 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Over 7¢ $2 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Under 4¢ $10 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Under 9¢ $1 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 7¢ $5 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 7¢ $5 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $30 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 5h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 6h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $28 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 27¢ $76 28h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 7¢ $21 29h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 29h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $22 29h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 98¢ $81 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 2d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $506.78 · official $506.90 (match) · 431 history records