Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfba…583c other 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (274 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$575 (-25%) realized −$567 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%12W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day273.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$837now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$575
sports 24% +$54
world 7% −$58
crypto 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (274 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-49.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -44.5% -49.8% 22% 22% -46.1%
≤30d 55 -44.5% -49.8% 22% 22% -46.1%
≤90d 55 -44.5% -49.8% 22% 22% -46.1%
all 55 -44.5% -49.8% 22% 22% -46.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover273.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.8% 22% -46.1%
10% ← realistic here -54.6% 20% -51.3%
15% -59.0% 20% -56.0%
20% -63.0% 16% -60.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$20 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$837
Realized−$567
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses12 / 43
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions33
Markets (closed)55 / 88
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day273.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $261 $260 −$1 (-0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+4%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-4%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 40¢ 40¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $17 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? No 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? No 88¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 86¢ 66¢ $6 $5 −$2 (-24%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? No 88¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $49 +$26 +52%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$24 +118%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $54 +$26 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $48 −$2 -4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 +$3 +50%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $14 −$11 -80%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $40 −$34 -87%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $32 −$3 -10%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $38 +$22 +57%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +11%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $5 −$4 -74%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -40%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $29 −$27 -94%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $37 +$28 +75%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -53%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $20 −$12 -61%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -53%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $12 −$7 -57%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$17 -43%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 $0 -7%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $388 −$361 -93%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $57 +$47 +81%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $6 −$4 -66%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $29 +$65 +222%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$46 +238%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $12 −$11 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $99 −$97 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +74%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$99 -75%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $15 −$12 -82%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +61%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $25 −$15 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 15m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 16m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 16m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $5 29m
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 30m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 54m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 56m
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 57m
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $11 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $24 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $24 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $8 3h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $836.82 · official $836.83 (match) · 329 history records