Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:17:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbfbb…de86 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$823 (+12%) realized +$841 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,588now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$181
other 17% +$319
crypto 4% +$262
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +9.1% -1.3% 64% 64% +4.1%
≤30d 22 +9.1% -1.3% 64% 64% +4.1%
≤90d 22 +9.1% -1.3% 64% 64% +4.1%
all 22 +9.1% -1.3% 64% 64% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 64% +4.1%
10% -10.7% 64% -5.8%
15% -19.4% 59% -14.9%
20% -27.3% 41% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$225 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1,588
Realized+$841
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions8
Markets (closed)22 / 30
History coverage6d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 61¢ 60¢ $301 $299 −$2 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $201 $203 +$2 (+1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $201 $199 −$2 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $201 $199 −$2 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Under 50¢ 48¢ $201 $193 −$8 (-4%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Algeria 58¢ 57¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Norway 38¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $305 +$242 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $204 +$183 +90%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $203 +$102 +50%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $305 −$301 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $204 −$201 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$181 +89%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $303 +$138 +46%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$262 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $202 +$92 +46%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $203 +$214 +105%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 14 $203 +$205 +101%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $303 +$180 +59%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $304 +$222 +73%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $304 −$300 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $508 +$517 +102%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $71 +$23 +32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$21 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 31m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $204 31m
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $203 33m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 57¢ $97 39m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $1 41m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $203 42m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $304 42m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $1 59m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $102 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $304 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $203 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $204 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $304 15h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 19h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 65¢ $1 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 19h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 19h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $204 19h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $304 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $304 20h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 66¢ $202 20h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $203 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $384 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 25h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $203 25h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $202 37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $304 37h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 47h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $303 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,587.86 · official $1,587.86 (match) · 53 history records