Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:53:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfbc…f42b sports 231 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$223 (-2%) realized −$203 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%96W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$885now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$308
7 days+$579
14 days+$441
30 days+$378
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$373
other 24% +$266
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +14.8% +3.9% 67% 67% +11.5%
≤30d 21 +3.6% -6.3% 57% 57% +0.4%
≤90d 217 -6.5% -15.4% 44% 42% -10.0%
all 219 -6.5% -15.4% 44% 42% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 42% -10.0%
10% -23.5% 38% -18.6%
15% -30.9% 31% -26.5%
20% -37.6% 25% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$18 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$885
Realized−$203
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses96 / 123
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions10
Markets (closed)219 / 231
History coverage92d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $200 $224 +$24 (+12%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $100 $63 −$37 (-37%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $201 +$53 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $301 −$5 -2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$148 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$29 +58%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $21 −$2 -10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$24 +46%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $152 +$86 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$26 +25%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $553 +$464 +84%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $304 −$245 -80%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$111 +109%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 06 $301 −$4 -2%
Will Singapore win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $151 +$38 +25%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 09 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 09 $15 −$10 -67%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 09 $25 −$15 -58%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $32 +$20 +61%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 07 $30 −$24 -78%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 07 $20 −$9 -45%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 05 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 05 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) May 05 $20 +$14 +67%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $71 +$16 +23%
Magic vs. Pistons May 04 $20 +$6 +32%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 03 $22 −$16 -72%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 03 $20 +$13 +62%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) May 03 $20 +$17 +86%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) May 02 $30 +$20 +67%
Rockets vs. Lakers May 01 $30 −$24 -78%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) May 01 $15 +$12 +78%
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) May 01 $15 +$12 +77%
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) Apr 30 $20 +$19 +93%
Spread: Pistons (-10.5) Apr 30 $30 −$3 -11%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $50 −$5 -9%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Apr 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Apr 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Apr 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Apr 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 99¢ $254 10m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 82¢ $101 53m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $296 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $101 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $351 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 32¢ $20 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $80 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 14h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $18 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $74 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 15¢ $21 44h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $152 44h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $126 46h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $885.18 · official $905.22 · 983 history records