Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbfbd…b6d3 sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$9 (-15%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$164
sports 15% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +41.5% +28.0% 33% 33% +226.8%
≤30d 3 +41.5% +28.0% 33% 33% +226.8%
≤90d 3 +41.5% +28.0% 33% 33% +226.8%
all 3 +41.5% +28.0% 33% 33% +226.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.0% 33% +226.8%
10% +15.8% 33% +195.5%
15% +4.6% 33% +166.9%
20% -5.7% 33% +140.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +261% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +261% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$4 · ×36.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.49 per $1 lost it wins $18.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $50 +$164 +324%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the South Africa vs Canada F Jun 29 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the South Africa vs Canad Jun 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $214 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $50 2h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the South Africa vs Canada F BUY Yes 2¢ $4 20h
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the South Africa vs Canad BUY Yes 4¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 4 history records