Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BF 0xbfbd…21d2 crypto 308 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$244 (-1%) realized −$177 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate21%109W / 417L
Whale WR23%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 110d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$5,978
world 15% +$2,891
sports 9% +$49
other 5% +$2,080
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 277 -37.5% -43.4% 10% 10% -79.3%
≤30d 277 -37.5% -43.4% 10% 10% -79.3%
≤90d 284 -37.2% -43.2% 11% 11% -79.2%
all 526 -26.2% -33.2% 21% 20% -43.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.2% 20% -43.4%
10% ← realistic here -39.6% 18% -48.8%
15% -45.4% 18% -53.8%
20% -50.8% 16% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 23% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$85 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$177
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses109 / 417
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions2
Markets (closed)526 / 308
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$112
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 526 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Over 13¢ 6¢ $71 $30 −$41 (-58%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Over 4¢ 2¢ $43 $17 −$26 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 409 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will AFC Ajax vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 9? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Valencia vs. Saski Baskonia Jun 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2025-12-19? Jun 18 $70 −$85 -121%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11? Jun 18 $13 +$2 +14%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Bristol City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2025-12-29? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-04? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will India win? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. KK Crvena Zvezda Jun 18 $56 +$150 +267%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-30? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
KK Crvena Zvezda vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv Jun 18 $543 −$548 -101%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20? Jun 18 $130 −$130 -100%
Partizan vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Jazz vs. Pacers Jun 18 $639 −$639 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-01-10? Jun 18 $630 −$630 -100%
Anadolu Efes vs. Virtus Bologna Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-01-03? Jun 18 $107 −$107 -100%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Valencia Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 18 $883 −$806 -91%
Will Leeds United vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 18 $115 −$115 -100%
Will CA Tigre win on 2025-11-16? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-12-14? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Fenerbahce vs. Partizan Jun 18 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1,706 −$1,258 -74%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6? Jun 18 $15 −$11 -73%
Saski Baskonia vs. Barcelona Jun 18 $112 −$112 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Jun 18 $15 +$651 +4342%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Nuggets vs. Pistons Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-02-19? Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bulls vs. Hawks Jun 18 $123 −$111 -91%
Barcelona vs. Monaco Jun 18 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30? Jun 18 $0 $0 +125%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? Jun 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Saski Baskonia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will SC Freiburg vs. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Virtus Bologna vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-02-18? Jun 18 $0 −$21 -5297975%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $4 19m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $20 19m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $4 20m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $4 20m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $4 20m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $0 25m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $0 26m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $0 28m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $0 30m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $73 33m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $7 38m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 39m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 46m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $40 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.66 · official $47.66 (match) · 3500 history records