Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BF 0xbfbf…f1e4 politics 196 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,180 (+0%) realized +$1,180 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate20%38W / 156L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$1,446per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$32
14 days+$30
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$2
politics 39% −$123
sports 10% +$1,183
economics 3% −$12
world 2% +$64
culture 2% −$6
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 60 +4.1% -5.9% 13% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 116 +2.6% -7.2% 9% 7% -9.3%
all 194 +1.0% -8.7% 20% 12% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 12% -9.2%
10% -17.4% 12% -17.9%
15% -25.4% 9% -25.8%
20% -32.7% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,953) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$5 · ×9.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$1,207
Realized+$1,180
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses38 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)194 / 196
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,446
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,027 $1,026 −$1 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $180 $181 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,025 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $3,820 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $3,661 −$5 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,230 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,232 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $2,314 −$4 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $2,484 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,090 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2,124 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,249 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $6,343 −$8 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $5,075 −$7 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $1,427 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,433 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,786 −$2 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $70 +$68 +97%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $64 +$28 +44%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $2,921 −$4 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $2,287 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,811 −$3 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $51 +$68 +134%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $58 +$39 +67%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,283 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $280 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 02 $504 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,953 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,663 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $2,111 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $1,593 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $1,597 −$3 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $1,688 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,554 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,037 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $513 −$1 -0%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 25 $84 +$54 +65%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $2,246 −$3 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,006 −$2 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,007 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,027 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,018 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,020 4h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,024 41h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,025 45h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,191 46h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,193 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,228 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,229 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,229 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,230 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,246 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,248 3d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,229 3d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,232 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,234 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,236 4d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,137 5d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,138 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,239 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,241 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,239 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,241 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,033 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,034 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,106 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,108 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,248 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,249 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,147 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,206.66 · official $1,206.66 (match) · 708 history records