Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:42:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfc2…b59e other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$52 (-13%) realized −$48 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%2W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$20
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$9
crypto 13% −$14
sports 5% −$20
finance 5% −$19
world 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -64.1% -67.5% 25% 25% -52.6%
≤90d 13 +20.9% +9.4% 15% 15% -29.2%
all 13 +20.9% +9.4% 15% 15% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.4% 15% -29.2%
10% -1.1% 15% -36.0%
15% -10.6% 15% -42.2%
20% -19.4% 8% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +138% → late -79% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$18 · ×4.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage86d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$11 +44%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 13 $20 −$19 -96%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $10 +$133 +1329%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.75 · official $145.75 (match) · 42 history records