Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:36:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfc3…206a other 228 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%6W / 221L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$13
14 days−$26
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$40
sports 24% −$19
politics 9% −$9
culture 5% −$5
crypto 4% −$3
world 4% −$3
economics 3% −$3
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 227 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses6 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)227 / 228
History coverage128d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $465 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $103 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $47 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $569 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $416 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $281 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $126 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $333 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $132 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $119 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $340 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $266 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $287 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $587 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $192 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $619 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $418 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $226 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $164 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $128 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $331 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $550 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $282 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $170 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $173 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $319 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $301 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $171 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $185 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $125 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $222 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 4h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 9h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 11h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 11h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 13h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 14h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 16h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 18h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 20h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $22 24h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $22 26h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 27h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 29h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $47 33h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $47 34h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 36h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 37h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 40h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $47 42h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $47 42h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $47 43h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $47 46h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $48 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.13 · official $46.13 (match) · 1313 history records