Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfcc…f37a other 248 markets active 6h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 236L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$27
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$36
sports 23% −$21
politics 9% −$9
crypto 5% −$5
culture 5% −$3
economics 5% −$4
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 189 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)248 / 248
History coverage127d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 248 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $615 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $332 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $194 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $346 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $185 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $601 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $247 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $108 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $441 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $909 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $361 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $338 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $105 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $434 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $952 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $198 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 07 $453 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $275 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $285 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $314 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $114 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $226 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $132 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 6h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 7h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 9h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 10h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 12h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 14h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 18h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 19h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 21h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 22h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 25h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 26h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 28h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 30h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $49 34h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 35h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $49 40h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $49 42h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 43h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 46h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $49 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $22 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1321 history records