Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BF 0xbfd0…1f67 crypto 591 markets active 0h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$605 (-5%) realized −$605 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate56%318W / 252L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$231
7 days+$289
14 days+$287
30 days+$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$1,017
sports 35% +$325
other 1% +$7
finance 1% +$3
tech 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -7.1% -15.9% 55% 42% -1.5%
≤30d 153 -5.8% -14.7% 56% 39% -3.7%
≤90d 188 -11.9% -20.3% 54% 37% -5.5%
all 570 -6.3% -15.2% 56% 42% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 42% -14.8%
10% -23.3% 36% -22.9%
15% -30.7% 31% -30.4%
20% -37.5% 29% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$605
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses318 / 252
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions21
Markets (closed)570 / 591
History coverage129d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 570 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 +$8 +76%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $50 +$13 +26%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 +$17 +17%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 +$5 +467%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$4 -37%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $595 +$3 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $186 +$119 +64%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $53 −$35 -65%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $22 +$5 +22%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $202 +$72 +36%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +56%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $151 +$32 +21%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +61%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 $0 -19%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +35%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $11 −$9 -82%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -92%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 +$22 +22%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 +$6 +31%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -69%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +254%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -19%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +87%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $250 +$3 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $7 +$4 +58%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1m
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 6m
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 6m
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 8m
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 1h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 17¢ $1 9h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 9h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 9h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 79¢ $50 9h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 85¢ $100 10h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 11h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 46¢ $6 12h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 73¢ $305 18h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 90¢ $305 18h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $186 18h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 54¢ $183 18h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 19h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 19h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 84¢ $290 20h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 20h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 20h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY SPARTA 49¢ $10 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 56¢ $3 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.16 · official $81.16 (match) · 1523 history records