Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfd3…98ef weather 95 markets active 4d ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$221 (-5%) realized −$221 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate14%12W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day60.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$75
14 days−$218
30 days−$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 44% −$144
politics 18% −$64
sports 15% −$12
world 9% −$65
other 6% −$29
finance 4% −$1
tech 3% −$2
culture 1% −$8
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -8.2% -17.0% 5% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 86 -10.7% -19.2% 14% 5% -16.5%
≤90d 86 -10.7% -19.2% 14% 5% -16.5%
all 86 -10.7% -19.2% 14% 5% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 5% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 3% -24.5%
15% -34.0% 2% -31.8%
20% -40.5% 2% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$221
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses12 / 74
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 95
History coverage20d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day60.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $6 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 −$4 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $36 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$4 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $67 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $116 −$8 -7%
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 11 $24 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $41 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $94 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $40 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $582 −$5 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 11 $37 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $19 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $32 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 11 $25 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 11 $31 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $60 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $297 −$3 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $53 −$7 -13%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? Jun 11 $56 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $67 −$6 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $92 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $52 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 11? Jun 10 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $10 $0 -4%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $13 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 11? Jun 10 $8 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $33 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $68 +$20 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$4 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 06 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$4 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $104 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $163 −$96 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1218 history records