Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbfd8…eeca sports 560 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,403 (+3%) realized +$1,451 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%260W / 285L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$764est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,621now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$488
7 days+$709
14 days+$709
30 days+$507
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$779
other 5% −$27
crypto 0% +$11
world 0% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +49.3% +35.1% 65% 65% +47.3%
≤30d 28 +11.2% +0.6% 50% 50% +20.0%
≤90d 545 +3.6% -6.2% 48% 47% -8.2%
all 545 +3.6% -6.2% 48% 47% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 47% -8.2%
10% -15.2% 46% -17.0%
15% -23.4% 46% -25.0%
20% -30.9% 46% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$80 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$1,621
Realized+$1,451
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses260 / 285
Est. fees paid−$764
Open positions15
Markets (closed)545 / 560
History coverage64d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 545 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $510 $490 −$20 (-4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $209 $207 −$2 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $136 $132 −$4 (-3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $144 $127 −$17 (-12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $94 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $78 $76 −$2 (-2%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $68 $69 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 31¢ 30¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $58 $55 −$3 (-5%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $45 $44 −$2 (-3%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-4%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $45 $40 −$5 (-12%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $81 +$89 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $42 +$79 +188%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $112 +$142 +127%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $41 +$106 +259%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $81 +$85 +105%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$39 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $79 −$79 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $94 +$111 +119%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $83 +$81 +97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $67 +$133 +197%
FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $90 +$75 +83%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$64 +105%
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5 May 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 2.5 May 18 $39 −$39 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 May 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Eyüpspor: O/U 3.5 May 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $39 −$39 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 May 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Nashville SC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Paris FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5 May 18 $39 +$31 +81%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5 May 18 $39 +$33 +86%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Angers SCO: O/U 2.5 May 18 $39 +$42 +109%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 May 15 $11 +$9 +79%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 May 15 $39 +$31 +79%
Vissel Kōbe vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5 May 15 $39 +$32 +83%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 May 15 $39 +$33 +86%
Middlesbrough FC vs. Southampton FC: Both Teams to Score May 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Incheon United FC: Both Teams to Score May 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Jeju SK FC vs. FC Seoul: Both Teams to Score May 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Hull City AFC vs. Millwall FC: Both Teams to Score May 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC: Both Teams to Score May 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 May 13 $81 −$81 -100%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Incheon United FC: O/U 2.5 May 13 $81 −$81 -100%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5 May 13 $81 −$81 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 May 13 $81 −$81 -100%
SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 May 13 $81 −$81 -100%
Elche CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: Both Teams to Score May 10 $51 +$39 +76%
RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Score May 10 $51 +$44 +86%
Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to Score May 10 $51 +$51 +101%
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5 May 10 $81 +$59 +73%
Middlesbrough FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $81 +$67 +83%
VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5 May 10 $81 +$71 +88%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $81 +$73 +90%
Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 2.5 May 09 $81 +$82 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $60 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $80 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $138 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $33 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $69 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $63 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $212 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $46 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $46 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $46 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $43 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $95 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $31 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $81 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $42 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $81 27h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $81 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $81 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $79 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $40 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $45 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $94 41h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $67 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $83 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 14¢ $45 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $90 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $48 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $61 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,620.62 · official $1,620.66 (match) · 1205 history records