Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfde…8267 crypto 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,868 (-25%) realized −$2,011 · open +$143
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%48W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$938now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 37% −$1,298
crypto 35% −$236
world 12% −$300
finance 8% +$242
politics 7% −$146
sports 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 10 -16.0% -24.0% 40% 30% -48.7%
all 136 -25.3% -32.4% 35% 33% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 33% -36.2%
10% -38.9% 24% -42.3%
15% -44.8% 21% -47.9%
20% -50.2% 15% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$32 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$938
Realized−$2,011
Unrealized+$143
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses48 / 88
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage158d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $796 $938 +$143 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 16 $916 −$878 -96%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 30 $441 −$320 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 12 $12 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 12 $7 +$5 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 12 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 12 $4 +$3 +66%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 12 $450 −$157 -35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 31 $882 −$300 -34%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 30 $100 −$13 -13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Mar 23 $480 +$255 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 21? Mar 21 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 21 $9 −$5 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 21 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 21 $87 −$79 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 21 $110 −$20 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Mar 21 $27 −$11 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 21 $88 +$36 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 21 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 21 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 21 $20 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 20 $20 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 20 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 20 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 20 $20 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 20 $154 +$34 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 20 $94 +$25 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 20 $11 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 19 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 19 $26 −$19 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 19 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 19 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 19 $28 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 19 $44 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 19 $46 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 19 $9 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $225 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $15 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $67 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $114 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $132 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $281 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $98 34d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $166 41d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $30 41d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $194 45d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $105 45d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $210 50d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $16 50d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL Yes 0¢ $16 50d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 1¢ $48 65d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 6¢ $98 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $12 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $12 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $7 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $5 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $7 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $7 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 67d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 67d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 68d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 17¢ $84 68d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL Yes 0¢ $84 68d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes 1¢ $101 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $938.41 · official $938.41 (match) · 354 history records