Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:04:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BF 0xbfdf…8e02 sports 652 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,566 (-2%) realized −$5,097 · open −$469
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%295W / 352L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$492per market
Trades / day34.3pace
Fees−$4,142est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,830now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 89d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$1,087
other 10% +$1,945
world 0% −$630
crypto 0% +$505
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +20.1% +8.7% 60% 59% +9.0%
≤30d 406 +9.2% -1.2% 49% 48% -7.0%
≤90d 647 +3.0% -6.8% 46% 45% -9.3%
all 647 +3.0% -6.8% 46% 45% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 45% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 44% -18.0%
15% -23.9% 43% -25.9%
20% -31.3% 40% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$625) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$504 vs −$421 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$1,830
Realized−$5,097
Unrealized−$469
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses295 / 352
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$4,142
Open positions6
Markets (closed)647 / 652
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$492
Trades / day34.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 647 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 100¢ $570 $999 +$429 (+75%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 42¢ $500 $425 −$75 (-15%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 24¢ $540 $245 −$295 (-55%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $170 $148 −$21 (-13%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Canada 3¢ 1¢ $29 $12 −$18 (-60%)
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? No 49¢ 0¢ $490 $0 −$490 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 302 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Macklin Celebrini win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 24 $298 −$298 -100%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $794 +$656 +83%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $3 +$2 +61%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $637 +$363 +57%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $590 +$410 +70%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 24 $912 +$288 +32%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $734 +$1,266 +172%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $480 +$520 +108%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 24 $634 −$625 -98%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 23 $936 +$264 +28%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $738 +$512 +70%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $741 +$559 +75%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $320 +$180 +56%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $804 +$388 +48%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $126 −$126 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $810 +$74 +9%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $520 −$520 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $712 −$712 -100%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 23 $162 +$1,088 +669%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $675 +$575 +85%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $744 +$456 +61%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 23 $984 +$216 +22%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $257 +$156 +61%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $700 +$740 +106%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $289 +$130 +45%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $710 +$290 +41%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $560 +$440 +79%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $650 +$350 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $647 −$640 -99%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $396 −$388 -98%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $310 −$310 -100%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $140 +$860 +614%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $490 +$510 +104%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $557 −$557 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $584 −$575 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $560 −$560 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $770 +$230 +30%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $315 −$315 -100%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 21 $110 −$110 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $530 +$470 +89%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $550 +$450 +82%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $175 −$175 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $575 +$675 +117%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $538 −$538 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $570 +$430 +75%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $630 +$370 +59%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,337 +$613 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $540 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $505 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $58 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $497 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 3¢ $29 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $170 2h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 62¢ $3 18h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY No 54¢ $794 18h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 50¢ $634 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $637 20h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Panama 76¢ $198 21h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Panama 76¢ $58 21h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Panama 76¢ $144 21h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Panama 76¢ $144 21h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Panama 76¢ $43 21h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Panama 76¢ $6 21h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Panama 76¢ $29 21h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Panama 76¢ $29 21h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Panama 76¢ $116 21h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Panama 76¢ $144 21h
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 36¢ $734 21h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $223 21h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $9 21h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $5 21h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $243 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 50¢ $500 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 32¢ $96 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 32¢ $5 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 32¢ $219 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,829.99 · official $1,829.99 (match) · 3500 history records