Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfe0…b5e2 crypto 675 markets active 2d ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$184 (-3%) realized −$184 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%261W / 414L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days−$296
14 days−$294
30 days−$531
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$830
world 3% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -72.8% -75.4% 8% 5% -80.5%
≤30d 269 -22.3% -29.7% 25% 23% -26.1%
≤90d 372 -21.4% -28.9% 29% 27% -21.7%
all 675 -14.6% -22.8% 39% 35% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 35% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -30.1% 31% -27.0%
15% -36.9% 26% -34.0%
20% -43.1% 21% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$184
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses261 / 414
Open positions0
Markets (closed)675 / 675
History coverage99d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 675 Trades
no open positions (315 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +382%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$27 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$12 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$9 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $23 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$7 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $34 −$32 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $14 −$11 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 04 $16 +$18 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 04 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 04 $7 −$6 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 03 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 03 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $4 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $11 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $10 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $11 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $45 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $6 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2601 history records