Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:10:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BF 0xbfe2…1913 world 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized +$2 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,513per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$12,951now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$503
world 46% −$532
crypto 4% −$16
tech 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +4.4% -5.6% 100% 0% -6.8%
≤90d 3 +4.4% -5.6% 100% 0% -6.8%
all 3 +4.4% -5.6% 100% 0% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 0% -6.8%
10% -14.6% 0% -15.7%
15% -22.9% 0% -23.8%
20% -30.4% 0% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$12,951
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)3 / 9
History coverage23d
Avg bet$1,513
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 69¢ $5,734 $5,783 +$49 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 90¢ 94¢ $2,585 $2,681 +$96 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 69¢ 56¢ $3,266 $2,633 −$633 (-19%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $800 $1,253 +$453 (+57%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $609 $594 −$16 (-3%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 56¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 06 $396 +$8 +2%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M Jun 03 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 03 $100 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $308 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $70 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $59 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $148 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $98 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $5 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $15 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $336 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $34 2d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $398 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $88 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $43 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $42 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $42 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,950.66 · official $12,956.79 (match) · 68 history records