Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:31:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfe5…3b07 politics 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 377d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%5W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$5
politics 38% −$4
sports 10% −$3
culture 5% +$1
economics 4% −$3
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 77 -10.6% -19.1% 6% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -26.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -33.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -40.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

377d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses5 / 72
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage377d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 22 $53 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $109 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 28 $54 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $167 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 10 $1 $0 -33%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $113 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $62 $0 -1%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 07 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 07 $1 $0 -18%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $54 $0 +0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 01 $1 $0 -50%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $2 $0 -21%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 31 $55 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $107 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 26 $1 $0 -14%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $118 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 25 $56 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 23 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 10 $1 −$1 -67%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 07 $1 $0 -12%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 03 $57 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 02 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 02 $1 $0 -42%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 01 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 29 $51 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 26 $60 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 21 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 11 $56 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 10 $4 −$1 -19%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 09 $122 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 01 $62 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 29 $125 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 23 $62 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 21 $1 $0 -50%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Oct 20 $126 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 16 $62 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 99¢ $53 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $53 22d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 118d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 141d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 145d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 148d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 149d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $55 153d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 154d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 155d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 156d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $53 157d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $55 158d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $55 160d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 161d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $53 162d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 162d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $52 162d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $52 163d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 163d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 164d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 164d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $53 164d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $53 166d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 166d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.56 · official $0.56 (match) · 372 history records