Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:37:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BF 0xbfe8…f57f crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-3%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%26W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% $0
crypto 31% $0
other 12% −$1
politics 9% −$12
sports 3% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 16 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -8.6%
all 34 -7.8% -16.6% 76% 0% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 0% -13.9%
10% -24.6% 0% -22.1%
15% -31.8% 0% -29.7%
20% -38.5% 0% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses26 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage139d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $105 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 9? May 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 28 $108 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 8? Apr 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 7? Apr 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 1? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on March 31? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 30? Mar 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 27? Mar 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 26? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 21? Mar 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 18? Mar 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 14? Mar 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 8? Mar 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 7? Mar 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $11 −$4 -33%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 05 $7 −$4 -50%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 04 $7 −$4 -50%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 03 $32 −$4 -12%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 02 $32 −$4 -12%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $31 −$4 -12%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 31 $7 −$4 -50%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 30 $8 −$4 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 51m
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $104 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $102 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $102 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $120 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $133 19d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $58 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $18 68d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 69d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $10 70d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $15 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $15 77d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $12 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 79d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $14 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $14 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $13 90d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $53 90d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $12 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.16 · official $105.16 (match) · 104 history records