Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BF 0xbfeb…763e crypto 591 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,701 (+85%) realized +$6,645 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate88%517W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day49.7pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 59d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$66
sports 48% +$783
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -34.0% -40.3% 25% 25% +13.1%
≤30d 20 -34.0% -40.3% 25% 25% +13.1%
≤90d 590 -2.1% -11.5% 88% 26% -0.9%
all 590 -2.1% -11.5% 88% 26% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 26% -0.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 3% -10.4%
15% -27.7% 2% -19.1%
20% -34.8% 2% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$26 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$245
Realized+$6,645
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses517 / 73
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)590 / 591
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day49.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 590 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 32¢ 41¢ $188 $245 +$56 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $312 +$755 +242%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $372 −$366 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $551 −$131 -24%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $117 −$115 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $42 −$41 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $19 −$19 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $83 −$50 -60%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $253 +$655 +259%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $176 +$322 +182%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $308 +$194 +63%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $21 −$21 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $353 +$260 +74%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $61 −$60 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $18 −$18 -98%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $42 −$41 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $19 −$19 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $272 −$270 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $267 −$262 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $283 −$50 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 06 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 06 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 06 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 06 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 06 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 06 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 06 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 06 $12 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 06 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 06 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 06 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 06 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 06 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 06 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 06 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 06 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 06 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 06 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 06 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 06 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 06 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 05 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 05 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 05 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 05 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 34¢ $52 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 34¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 32¢ $48 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $1,067 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 27¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 50¢ $105 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 40¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 37¢ $63 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 28¢ $42 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 13¢ $17 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 14¢ $21 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 23¢ $32 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 22¢ $31 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 57¢ $162 3h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 32¢ $53 3h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 23¢ $31 3h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 26¢ $39 3h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 27¢ $41 3h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $1,233 3h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 29¢ $3 3h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 31¢ $44 3h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 68¢ $132 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 39¢ $70 5h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 37¢ $68 5h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 13¢ $15 5h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 47¢ $102 5h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 17¢ $21 6h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 27¢ $1 7h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 28¢ $41 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.84 · official $237.71 · 3500 history records