Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:43:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

BF 0xbfed…9d03 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$224 (+2%) realized −$271 · open +$495

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR54%break-even

Win rate54%15W / 13L

Whale WR71%big bets

Drawdown93%max

Avg bet$354per market

Trades / day67.8pace

Fees−$135est.

Kalshi-fit97%portable

Net worth$1,232now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +54%

net ROI/market (all)-5.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	28	+4.2%	-5.7%	54%	54%	+0.5%
≤30d	28	+4.2%	-5.7%	54%	54%	+0.5%
≤90d	28	+4.2%	-5.7%	54%	54%	+0.5%
all	28	+4.2%	-5.7%	54%	54%	+0.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover67.8 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-5.7%	54%	+0.5%
10% ← realistic here	-14.8%	54%	-9.1%
15%	-23.0%	46%	-17.9%
20%	-30.5%	25%	-26.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 71% (≥$555) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +18% → late -9% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$259 vs −$216 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.39 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,232

Realized−$271

Unrealized+$495

Win rate (resolved)54%

Wins / losses15 / 13

Whale WR (big bets)71%

Est. fees paid−$135

Open positions2

Markets (closed)28 / 30

History coverage1d

Avg bet$354

Trades / day67.8

Drawdown93%

Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 28 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	41¢	69¢	$427	$727	+$300 (+70%)
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies	Miami Marlins	38¢	62¢	$310	$505	+$195 (+63%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles	Jun 30	$338	−$338	-100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies	Jun 30	$51	−$46	-90%
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Jun 30	$640	+$170	+26%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri	Jun 30	$366	+$225	+62%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	Jun 29	$300	+$617	+206%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 29	$308	+$334	+108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Jun 29	$228	−$228	-100%
Brazil leading at halftime?	Jun 29	$565	−$555	-98%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ - Map 2 Winner	Jun 29	$543	+$253	+47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Jun 29	$230	+$201	+88%
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger	Jun 29	$398	−$57	-14%
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner	Jun 29	$183	−$157	-86%
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 2 Winner	Jun 29	$426	−$422	-99%
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner	Jun 29	$102	−$79	-77%
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winner	Jun 29	$101	+$44	+43%
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Donstu Esports - Map 1 Winner	Jun 29	$102	+$124	+122%
Counter-Strike: megoshort vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series	Jun 29	$406	−$20	-5%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner	Jun 29	$153	−$153	-100%
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group B	Jun 29	$561	−$555	-99%
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner	Jun 29	$187	+$289	+154%
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner	Jun 29	$303	+$147	+48%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	Jun 29	$130	−$130	-100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	Jun 29	$303	+$119	+40%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner	Jun 29	$560	+$255	+46%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner	Jun 29	$849	+$231	+27%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner	Jun 29	$784	+$289	+37%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox	Jun 29	$630	+$592	+94%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champio	Jun 29	$110	−$64	-58%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies	BUY Miami Marlins	33¢	$90	45m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	38¢	$22	1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies	SELL Philadelphia Phillies	2¢	$5	1h
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies	BUY Miami Marlins	41¢	$226	1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies	BUY Philadelphia Phillies	20¢	$51	1h
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays	SELL Toronto Blue Jays	86¢	$511	1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri	SELL MIBR Academy	100¢	$591	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	41¢	$412	1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles	BUY Baltimore Orioles	53¢	$338	2h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri	BUY MIBR Academy	55¢	$89	2h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri	BUY MIBR Academy	54¢	$78	2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	SELL Paraguay	100¢	$917	3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Paraguay	32¢	$300	3h
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays	SELL Toronto Blue Jays	53¢	$300	3h
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays	BUY Toronto Blue Jays	54¢	$640	4h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$642	4h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri	BUY MIBR Academy	68¢	$167	4h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri	BUY MIBR Academy	69¢	$32	4h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	49¢	$79	4h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	46¢	$226	4h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	46¢	$3	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$228	7h
Brazil leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	41¢	$565	11h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ - Map 2 Winner	SELL Prestige	100¢	$795	11h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ - Map 2 Winner	BUY Prestige	68¢	$543	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$431	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$230	12h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger	SELL Just Players	49¢	$341	12h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger	BUY Just Players	56¢	$398	13h
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner	SELL BALU	4¢	$5	13h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,232.26 · official $1,232.37 (match) · 78 history records