Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:38:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfed…e080 weather 302 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (729 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,251 (+8%) realized +$2,239 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate94%277W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day729.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$753
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (729 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+40.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 296 +54.9% +40.2% 94% 9% -12.4%
≤30d 296 +54.9% +40.2% 94% 9% -12.4%
≤90d 296 +54.9% +40.2% 94% 9% -12.4%
all 296 +54.9% +40.2% 94% 9% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover729.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +40.2% 9% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here +26.8% 8% -20.8%
15% +14.5% 8% -28.5%
20% +3.3% 7% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +80% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$86 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$2,154
Realized+$2,239
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses277 / 19
Open positions47
Markets (closed)296 / 302
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$89
Trades / day729.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 104-105°F on June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $212 $214 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 30? No 98¢ 97¢ $216 $213 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 29? No 98¢ 98¢ $146 $146 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 29? No 98¢ 100¢ $134 $137 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or below on June 29? No 98¢ 99¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or below on June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $108 $108 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 29? No 96¢ 90¢ $111 $104 −$7 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $103 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 30? No 92¢ 92¢ $94 $94 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C or higher on June 29? No 95¢ 100¢ $82 $86 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 29? No 96¢ 100¢ $72 $76 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 29? No 98¢ 100¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C or below on July 1? No 98¢ 99¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 29? No 98¢ 99¢ $44 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1? No 98¢ 98¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 29? No 93¢ 93¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 57°F or below on June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $31 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 29? No 98¢ 99¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $31 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 29? No 96¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 93°F or below on June 29? No 97¢ 99¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 29? No 98¢ 100¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 10? Jun 29 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 29 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 29 $1 +$6 +685%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on June 10? Jun 29 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 16? Jun 29 $1 +$1 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 27? Jun 29 $1 +$1 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on June 4? Jun 29 $1 +$1 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 26? Jun 29 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 7? Jun 29 $1 +$3 +517%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 29 $0 +$5 +1056%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 29 $0 +$1 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 8? Jun 29 $0 +$2 +416%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 29 $0 +$1 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 14? Jun 29 $0 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? Jun 29 $0 +$10 +2980%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 29 $0 +$4 +1269%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on June Jun 29 $0 +$1 +517%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 2? Jun 29 $0 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 10? Jun 29 $0 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ma Jun 29 $0 +$3 +1740%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 5? Jun 29 $0 +$6 +4101%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 29 $0 +$1 +405%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 10? Jun 29 $0 +$4 +2974%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 2? Jun 29 $121 −$119 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 30? Jun 29 $145 −$145 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 23? Jun 29 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 6? Jun 29 $90 −$87 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 29? Jun 29 $126 −$126 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 7? Jun 29 $2 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 Jun 29 $94 −$93 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on May Jun 29 $93 −$93 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 29 $142 −$142 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 29 $94 −$94 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 22? Jun 29 $147 −$147 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 3? Jun 29 $1 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 6? Jun 29 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 19? Jun 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 22? Jun 29 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? Jun 29 $9 −$8 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 29? Jun 29 $109 −$109 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? Jun 29 $55 −$51 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 104°F or higher on June 30? Jun 29 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 91°F or below on June 28? Jun 29 $236 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 28? Jun 29 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on June 29? Jun 29 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 87°F or below on June 30? Jun 29 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 29? Jun 29 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 29? Jun 29 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 102-103°F on June 3 Jun 29 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1? BUY No 98¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 104°F or higher on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $16 4m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C or below on July 1? BUY No 98¢ $23 8m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1? BUY No 98¢ $6 9m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 29? SELL No 99¢ $42 11m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1? BUY No 98¢ $6 15m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 1? BUY No 96¢ $7 15m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on June 30 SELL No 99¢ $44 17m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 22m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or below on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $17 24m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1? BUY No 98¢ $7 27m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 31m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1? BUY No 98¢ $8 33m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 104-105°F on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $5 37m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1? BUY No 98¢ $8 39m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $4 40m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $93 40m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C or below on July 1? BUY No 98¢ $31 40m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 29? SELL No 99¢ $5 45m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 29? SELL No 99¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 29? SELL No 99¢ $5 45m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 29? SELL No 99¢ $5 45m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 29? SELL No 99¢ $5 45m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 29? SELL No 99¢ $5 45m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 29? SELL No 99¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 29? SELL No 99¢ $5 45m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 29? SELL No 99¢ $5 45m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 29? SELL No 99¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 29? SELL No 99¢ $5 45m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 29? SELL No 99¢ $5 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,154.16 · official $2,142.73 (match) · 3500 history records