Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:34:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

BF 0xbff1…3972 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$923 (+22%) realized +$191 · open +$732

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip

Net edge+16%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%6W / 3L

Drawdown36%max

Avg bet$277per market

Trades / day21.0pace

Fees−$54est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$2,204now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+36.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+50.5%	+36.1%	67%	67%	+43.3%
≤30d	9	+50.5%	+36.1%	67%	67%	+43.3%
≤90d	9	+50.5%	+36.1%	67%	67%	+43.3%
all	9	+50.5%	+36.1%	67%	67%	+43.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover21.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+36.1%	67%	+43.3%
10% ← realistic here	+23.1%	67%	+29.6%
15%	+11.2%	67%	+17.1%
20%	+0.3%	67%	+5.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +50% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$371 vs −$245 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.03 per $1 lost it wins $3.03

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$2,204

Realized+$191

Unrealized+$732

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses6 / 3

Est. fees paid−$54

Open positions5

Markets (closed)9 / 15

History coverage1d

Avg bet$277

Trades / day21.0

Drawdown36%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	Over	49¢	100¢	$391	$798	+$407 (+104%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	FURIA	49¢	56¢	$394	$454	+$60 (+15%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5	Under	54¢	78¢	$293	$423	+$130 (+44%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	Over	48¢	81¢	$194	$330	+$135 (+70%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	13¢	$200	$199	−$1 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$401	+$545	+136%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$406	+$393	+97%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi	Jun 18	$340	−$335	-98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	Jun 18	$203	−$200	-98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	Jun 18	$256	+$239	+93%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M	Jun 18	$256	+$387	+152%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena	Jun 18	$295	+$314	+107%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	Jun 18	$204	+$346	+170%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$203	−$200	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	48¢	$197	45m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners AND Sw	BUY	21¢	$99	47m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5	BUY Under	54¢	$297	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY FURIA	49¢	$400	1h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	BUY Over	49¢	$397	1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	100¢	$946	1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	100¢	$799	1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi	BUY Benjamin Bonzi	44¢	$340	4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	50¢	$406	5h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	BUY Under	50¢	$203	5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	SELL Aurora Gaming	100¢	$495	5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	BUY Aurora Gaming	51¢	$256	5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M	SELL KT Rolster Challengers	100¢	$643	6h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena	SELL Sebastian Ofner	100¢	$609	6h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena	BUY Sebastian Ofner	48¢	$295	8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M	BUY KT Rolster Challengers	39¢	$256	8h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	SELL Dplus KIA Challengers	100¢	$550	8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	42¢	$401	10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$203	10h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$205	10h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	BUY Dplus KIA Challengers	36¢	$204	10h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,203.78 · official $2,300.80 · 21 history records