Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BF 0xbff3…a023 crypto 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 862d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,468 (-3%) realized −$3,475 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate89%119W / 15L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$837per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,707now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$19
14 days−$181
30 days−$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 31% +$945
politics 15% +$1,497
other 13% +$195
tech 12% +$391
economics 9% +$134
sports 9% −$2,002
finance 7% −$3,293
world 2% +$86
culture 2% −$1,414
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 3 -32.3% -38.7% 67% 0% -19.2%
≤90d 16 -22.3% -29.7% 75% 6% -33.5%
all 134 +0.5% -9.1% 89% 19% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 19% -12.3%
10% -17.8% 10% -20.7%
15% -25.7% 7% -28.4%
20% -33.0% 4% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$547 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

862d coverage
Net worth$1,707
Realized−$3,475
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses119 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)134 / 137
History coverage862d
Avg bet$837
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $500 $523 +$23 (+5%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 94¢ 90¢ $200 $190 −$10 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $501 +$13 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $1,000 +$6 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $300 +$49 +16%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 10 $1,500 +$11 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 10 $1,000 +$36 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 10 $1,000 +$40 +4%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 10 $2,000 +$32 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Apr 10 $100 −$96 -96%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $500 +$4 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Apr 07 $700 +$49 +7%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 05 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 03 $3,500 −$3,481 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 02 $1,000 +$13 +1%
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $2,000 +$21 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 02 $3,000 +$129 +4%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $100 +$69 +70%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $300 +$17 +6%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 14 $1,000 +$2 +0%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Italy Mar 11 $12 −$12 -100%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Czechia Mar 10 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 10 $300 +$36 +12%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Great Britain Mar 08 $500 +$10 +2%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Australia Mar 08 $500 +$19 +4%
Will Samsara (IOT) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 07 $700 +$92 +13%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $500 +$10 +2%
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 05 $500 +$32 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $1,000 +$19 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 28 $1,000 +$7 +1%
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Feb 27 $350 +$9 +2%
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $1,000 +$9 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $205 on February 10? Feb 18 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 on February 9? Feb 10 $1,000 +$3 +0%
Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Google run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $200 +$3 +1%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $3,700 +$37 +1%
Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $2,000 +$19 +1%
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $1,000 +$8 +1%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Feb 04 $3,500 +$79 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Jan 31 $900 −$193 -21%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 31 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan Jan 31 $1,000 +$8 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $500 +$3 +0%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute Jan 28 $200 +$6 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 07 $500 +$13 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 01 $255 +$1 +0%
Discord IPO in 2025? Jan 01 $1,000 +$5 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jan 01 $1,000 +$12 +1%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 Dec 25 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Stripe IPO in 2025? Dec 13 $1,000 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 94¢ $200 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 97¢ $501 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $1,000 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $501 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1,000 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 95¢ $200 11d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? BUY No 96¢ $1,000 70d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $500 71d
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $1,000 72d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? BUY Yes 1¢ $100 73d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL No 95¢ $504 75d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL Yes 91¢ $749 75d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? BUY No 96¢ $1,000 76d
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 77d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 86¢ $300 77d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 94¢ $500 77d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 77d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 97¢ $1,003 77d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 77d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? BUY No 87¢ $3,500 79d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY Yes 85¢ $700 79d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 97¢ $1,000 80d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $1,000 95d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 59¢ $100 100d
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 95¢ $300 100d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $1,002 100d
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Italy BUY USA 91¢ $12 103d
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,000 103d
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Czechia BUY Japan 99¢ $200 104d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 94¢ $1,000 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.