Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbff4…b609 other 453 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,412 (-6%) realized −$7,412 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%200W / 252L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$296est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$295
7 days−$1,165
14 days−$1,445
30 days−$2,758
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$4,331
sports 41% −$648
crypto 5% −$2,299
world 1% −$826
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +0.8% -8.8% 57% 57% -15.3%
≤30d 161 -19.7% -27.4% 45% 45% -18.4%
≤90d 425 -14.3% -22.5% 44% 42% -17.4%
all 452 -11.4% -19.9% 44% 43% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 43% -15.6%
10% -27.5% 40% -23.7%
15% -34.5% 36% -31.1%
20% -41.0% 28% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$159 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$7,412
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses200 / 252
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$296
Open positions1
Markets (closed)452 / 453
History coverage95d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 452 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 44¢ 44¢ $174 $174 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $170 −$65 -38%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $210 +$30 +14%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $254 +$57 +23%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $143 +$60 +42%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals Jun 17 $90 −$88 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$76 +149%
Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals Jun 16 $93 −$91 -98%
Fortaleza EC leading at halftime? Jun 16 $150 −$147 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $550 +$299 +54%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $268 +$282 +105%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $126 +$143 +114%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $126 −$125 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $173 +$78 +45%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $412 −$239 -58%
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $125 −$104 -84%
Criciúma EC leading at halftime? Jun 16 $115 +$165 +143%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $127 −$110 -86%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $156 −$154 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $349 −$342 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,168 −$1,161 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $132 −$130 -98%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $900 −$888 -99%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $217 −$215 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,298 +$1,117 +86%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $168 −$165 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $886 +$582 +66%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $188 +$100 +53%
EC Juventude leading at halftime? Jun 14 $402 +$386 +96%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $592 −$190 -32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,725 −$1,699 -98%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1,190 −$453 -38%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $334 +$46 +14%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $51 +$51 +101%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $233 +$166 +71%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $297 +$271 +91%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $1,891 +$204 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $127 +$67 +53%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $36 +$26 +74%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $141 +$101 +71%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $122 +$48 +40%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $1,002 +$248 +25%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $154 +$150 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $602 +$250 +41%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $361 +$129 +36%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $126 −$124 -98%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 11 $201 +$174 +86%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $114 +$87 +76%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $40 −$39 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $177 38m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 35¢ $106 39m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $170 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 92¢ $240 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 80¢ $210 5h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Alex de Minaur 96¢ $311 5h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Alex de Minaur 78¢ $254 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $143 15h
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $90 16h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $127 16h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 17h
Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $93 18h
Fortaleza EC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $150 19h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $849 19h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $550 20h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $268 25h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Hamad Medjedovic 100¢ $269 25h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 46¢ $126 27h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 59¢ $126 31h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $39 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $38 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $133 40h
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 40h
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 40h
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 40h
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 40h
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 40h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) SELL New Zealand 4¢ $21 40h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 23¢ $125 40h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $125 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.00 · official $174.00 (match) · 1066 history records