Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:56:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbff6…9797 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% $0
other 34% +$4
politics 9% −$3
crypto 9% −$1
culture 4% +$4
tech 1% $0
weather 0% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 12% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.5%
all 37 -1.1% -10.6% 35% 8% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 8% -9.2%
10% -19.1% 3% -17.9%
15% -26.9% 3% -25.9%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage465d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $67 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $35 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $32 +$1 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $41 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $64 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 22 $21 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $12 $0 +1%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 28 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $32 −$2 -5%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 13 $7 +$2 +37%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 19 May 11 $44 −$3 -7%
Will France be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 11 $43 $0 +0%
Will Virgil van Dijk win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? May 11 $44 $0 -1%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 10 $22 +$3 +13%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 May 09 $38 +$4 +11%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 08 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $37 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $37 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $2 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $34 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $35 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $31 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $28 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $34 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $36 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 78¢ $34 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 75¢ $32 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $5 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $27 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $7 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $25 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $32 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 71¢ $35 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 71¢ $35 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $32 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $19 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $13 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $35 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $35 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $21 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records