Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbff7…92fb sports 345 markets active 1h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$47,955 (-11%) realized −$47,787 · open −$168
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%144W / 194L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,281per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$6,347est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$866now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,893
7 days−$2,385
14 days−$3,915
30 days−$26,814
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$65,116
other 1% −$1,994
world 0% +$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -45.5% -50.7% 37% 34% -53.3%
≤30d 122 -23.8% -31.0% 43% 39% -28.7%
≤90d 308 -17.8% -25.6% 43% 42% -23.8%
all 338 -18.2% -26.0% 43% 41% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.0% 41% -23.9%
10% ← realistic here -33.1% 40% -31.2%
15% -39.5% 38% -37.9%
20% -45.5% 35% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$1,728) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,036 vs −$1,113 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$866
Realized−$47,787
Unrealized−$168
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses144 / 194
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$6,347
Open positions7
Markets (closed)338 / 345
History coverage188d
Avg bet$1,281
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 338 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 70¢ $355 $352 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $205 $202 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Ghana 19¢ 18¢ $95 $92 −$2 (-3%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $82 $81 −$1 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 18¢ $238 $79 −$160 (-67%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 54¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 44¢ 48¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 165 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,107 −$1,099 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $269 −$265 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $72 +$28 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $197 +$103 +52%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $57 +$43 +76%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $8 +$2 +20%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $53 −$52 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $58 −$57 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 −$14 -58%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $8 +$2 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $25 −$24 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $28 −$27 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $806 +$194 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $55 +$45 +83%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $161 +$39 +24%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $163 −$160 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $7 +$3 +47%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 16 $80 −$80 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $60 −$59 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $125 −$124 -99%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $191 +$209 +109%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $412 −$405 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $569 −$563 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $129 +$71 +55%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $504 −$501 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $486 −$479 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $553 −$550 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 03 $66 +$72 +110%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $702 −$697 -99%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 30 $547 −$540 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $573 −$561 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $757 −$756 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $825 +$675 +82%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $371 −$368 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $280 −$280 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $2,652 +$148 +6%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $280 −$280 -100%
FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5 May 27 $157 −$91 -58%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $517 +$481 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $242 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $358 1h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $97 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $83 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $209 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,107 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $269 9h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $55 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 52¢ $53 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $72 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $58 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $197 20h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $57 22h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 12¢ $1 22h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 12¢ $11 22h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 12¢ $12 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $9 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 27¢ $28 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $7 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $12 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 56¢ $142 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $125 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $353 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $38 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $865.59 · official $865.59 (match) · 2417 history records