Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:03:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
BF 0xbffd…2af5 sports 220 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$368 (+4%) realized +$635 · open −$267
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%106W / 108L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$473now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$219
7 days−$329
14 days−$461
30 days+$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$951
other 35% −$1,080
world 6% +$6
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +31.0% +18.5% 55% 48% -15.9%
≤30d 214 +15.7% +4.7% 50% 47% -8.0%
≤90d 214 +15.7% +4.7% 50% 47% -8.0%
all 214 +15.7% +4.7% 50% 47% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.7% 47% -8.0%
10% -5.3% 41% -16.8%
15% -14.5% 40% -24.8%
20% -22.8% 39% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$22 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$473
Realized+$635
Unrealized−$267
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses106 / 108
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions6
Markets (closed)214 / 220
History coverage19d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 100¢ $100 $416 +$316 (+316%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 100¢ $9 $20 +$11 (+127%)
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito Sara Saito 76¢ 76¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 38¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 18¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $594 $0 −$594 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Jesse Delaney Jun 16 $35 +$6 +16%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $8 +$11 +134%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$47 +307%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$15 +101%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$28 +1374%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $253 −$250 -99%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $35 +$6 +16%
Figueira Da Foz: Manon Leonard vs Alina Charaeva Jun 15 $25 +$5 +20%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $16 +$5 +32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$35 +87%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $66 −$15 -23%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$51 +250%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $103 −$102 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $13 +$11 +83%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $416 +$25 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 +$33 +216%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $13 +$10 +79%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $186 +$102 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $25 +$6 +24%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$12 +113%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 −$3 -3%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $41 +$102 +250%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$12 +114%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $29 +$2 +7%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $35 +$5 +15%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito BUY Sara Saito 76¢ $17 1h
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Jesse Delaney BUY Tai Leonard Sach 86¢ $35 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $9 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $600 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $8 4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $15 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $253 7h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 11h
Will Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 11h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 86¢ $35 12h
Figueira Da Foz: Manon Leonard vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 83¢ $25 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $120 21h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $6 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $76 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 24h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 24h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL No 90¢ $155 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 29¢ $51 25h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $22 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 27h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 27h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $81 27h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 27h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $473.07 · official $473.07 (match) · 406 history records