Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BF 0xbfff…ff43 sports 203 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$65 (+13%) realized +$66 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%62W / 131L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$16
14 days+$6
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$66
other 29% −$6
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +62.7% +47.2% 45% 45% +40.3%
≤30d 67 +16.4% +5.3% 34% 34% +2.4%
≤90d 193 +9.7% -0.8% 32% 32% +3.1%
all 193 +9.7% -0.8% 32% 32% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 32% +3.1%
10% -10.3% 32% -6.8%
15% -18.9% 32% -15.8%
20% -26.9% 32% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses62 / 131
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions10
Markets (closed)193 / 203
History coverage64d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +124%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$7 +344%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$6 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$10 +253%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +262%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Poland vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $2 +$5 +250%
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $2 +$3 +146%
Will CDPJuniorFC vs. Atlético Nacional end in a draw? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Haiti vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $2 +$5 +262%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2 +$1 +60%
Will AC Goianiense vs. Goiás EC end in a draw? May 31 $2 +$4 +188%
Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2 +$4 +206%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw? May 31 $2 +$6 +276%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $2 +$5 +226%
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? May 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Czechia vs. Kosovo end in a draw? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IF Brommapojkarna win on 2026-05-31? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-05-31? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Avaí FC vs. Criciúma EC end in a draw? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-31? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-05-31? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Grêmio FBPA vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States vs. Senegal end in a draw? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $2 +$16 +786%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CD Tolima end in a draw? May 27 $2 +$4 +206%
Will Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw? May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Montevideo City Torque win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. CD Universidad Católica end in a draw? May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-27? May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central end in a draw? May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. Independiente Medellín end in a draw? May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will CA Lanús vs. Mirassol FC end in a draw? May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$6 +276%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $2 +$3 +158%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $2 +$4 +206%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 13d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 13d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 13d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 13d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 13d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.75 · official $70.75 (match) · 313 history records