Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:34:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc002…6f57 other 225 markets active 2h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$584 (-1%) realized −$576 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate38%82W / 133L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$384per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,052now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$512
14 days+$482
30 days+$725
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$551
world 27% −$50
other 23% +$345
tech 8% +$438
politics 5% −$379
crypto 3% −$369
weather 1% −$8
culture 1% −$78
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +13.5% +2.6% 56% 21% +0.9%
≤30d 105 -4.7% -13.8% 36% 14% -7.1%
≤90d 142 -6.3% -15.3% 35% 14% -9.2%
all 215 -6.4% -15.3% 38% 14% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 14% -10.2%
10% -23.4% 9% -18.8%
15% -30.8% 6% -26.6%
20% -37.6% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$26 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$2,052
Realized−$576
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses82 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions10
Markets (closed)215 / 225
History coverage267d
Avg bet$384
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? No 73¢ 74¢ $557 $561 +$4 (+1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 94¢ 93¢ $559 $553 −$6 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $491 $494 +$4 (+1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? No 83¢ 80¢ $164 $157 −$6 (-4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $93 $95 +$1 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $67 $68 +$1 (+1%)
Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Will Gabriel Souza win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-51%)
Will Luis Carlos Heinze win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -24%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $19 $0 -1%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -14%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $7 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $34 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $32 −$12 -38%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 15 $170 +$35 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $156 −$1 -1%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 14 $18 +$5 +30%
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 14 $38 +$2 +4%
Will Francisco Conceição be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 13 $52 +$5 +9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 13 $4 +$25 +609%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $178 +$22 +12%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $13 +$5 +40%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $378 +$12 +3%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $1,344 +$392 +29%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -37%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,750 +$50 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 12 $14 −$7 -53%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $46 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $9 $0 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 11 $32 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 11 $14 $0 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 11 $14 $0 +1%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $39 −$10 -26%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $360 +$10 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 09 $986 +$14 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 09 $553 −$27 -5%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $204 +$4 +2%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $58 +$2 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 06 $342 −$34 -10%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 3? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 3? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 3? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 4? Jun 06 $1 $0 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 4? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 3? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 06 $8 −$1 -14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 06 $193 −$1 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $21 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? BUY No 73¢ $563 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 40¢ $8 4h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 57¢ $11 5h
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 42¢ $8 5h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 58¢ $12 5h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 50¢ $1 5h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 51¢ $10 5h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 51¢ $10 5h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 49¢ $10 5h
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 48¢ $10 6h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 45¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? SELL No 40¢ $19 7h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 41¢ $20 7h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 38¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 14¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 67¢ $33 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 68¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 68¢ $14 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 68¢ $16 8h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 37¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 92¢ $3 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,051.77 · official $2,054.61 (match) · 1574 history records