Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:23:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc005…16bd sports 347 markets active 1h ago coverage 652d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%32W / 314L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$12
14 days−$30
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% −$11
politics 26% −$21
other 25% −$24
economics 5% −$3
crypto 4% −$5
world 3% −$4
culture 2% −$3
finance 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.0% -10.4% 14% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 72 -0.9% -10.3% 7% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 78 -0.8% -10.3% 6% 0% -10.1%
all 346 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

652d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses32 / 314
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)346 / 347
History coverage652d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? No 97¢ 97¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $162 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $211 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $63 $0 -1%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $52 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $112 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $130 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $171 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 14 $94 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $245 +$2 +1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $48 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $45 −$3 -7%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $56 −$1 -3%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $29 −$1 -3%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $90 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 10 $110 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 10 $196 −$2 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $92 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $128 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $72 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $87 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $163 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $41 −$2 -4%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $44 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $213 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $197 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $233 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $157 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $64 −$4 -7%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $71 −$1 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 03 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 03 $43 −$1 -2%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $120 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $171 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $43 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $186 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $104 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $57 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 9h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $65 10h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $66 17h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $66 17h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $66 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $63 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $63 27h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $51 27h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $23 31h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $28 31h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $54 32h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 97¢ $54 40h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $51 40h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $52 45h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $14 46h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $61 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $62 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $42 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $42 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $57 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $52 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $21 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 95¢ $48 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $52 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.18 · official $57.18 (match) · 1359 history records