Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:33:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc007…760b world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate48%22W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$3
other 25% +$1
crypto 5% $0
politics 5% $0
sports 4% +$3
economics 4% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 15 -2.3% -11.6% 40% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 15 -2.3% -11.6% 40% 0% -9.1%
all 46 -4.2% -13.4% 48% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 4% -9.3%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.0%
15% -29.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses22 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage466d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $46 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $9 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $70 +$2 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $41 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $40 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $1 $0 -7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $4 −$2 -35%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $44 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $11 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 29 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 27 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%? Apr 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats? Apr 27 $11 $0 -1%
Will Trump increase cap on H-1B visas in first 100 days? Apr 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 25 $11 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Mar 28 $14 $0 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 21 $3 −$3 -98%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian Mar 17 $12 $0 +4%
Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 16 $1 $0 +11%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $1 $0 -8%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on March 13? Mar 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $15 +$3 +21%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $46 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $46 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $0 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $7 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 27h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $44 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $44 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $18 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $24 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $30 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $12 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $46 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $45 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $0 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $1 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $16 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $25 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $41 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records