Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc008…a33f other 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 241L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$18
14 days−$30
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$39
sports 25% −$24
politics 9% −$11
culture 7% −$7
economics 5% −$5
crypto 4% −$4
world 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 251 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)251 / 252
History coverage137d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $245 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $207 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $416 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $223 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $203 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $141 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $416 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $193 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $184 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $469 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $217 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $638 −$2 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $246 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $137 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $122 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $507 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $607 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $144 $0 -0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $155 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $401 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $360 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $989 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 06 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $293 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $645 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $156 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $493 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $362 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $178 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $339 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $436 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $47 34m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 3h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $56 17h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $56 18h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 23h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 24h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $56 29h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 31h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 32h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 33h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 35h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 38h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 41h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 43h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 45h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 47h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 3d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.71 · official $46.71 (match) · 1445 history records