Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:58:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc009…7a6f other 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$5
other 22% −$1
politics 19% −$3
economics 10% −$2
culture 6% −$1
crypto 6% −$1
world 5% −$2
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 3 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 146 -0.1% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 135
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage166d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 93¢ 93¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $37 $0 -1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $37 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $95 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 20 $308 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 20 $159 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 19 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 18 $47 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 17 $100 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 17 $160 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 16 $247 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Mar 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $129 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 14 $105 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 12 $91 −$2 -2%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 11 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $226 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 10 $47 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 09 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $160 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 07 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 07 $114 +$2 +2%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 04 $146 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 03 $155 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $131 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 01 $174 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 01 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 01 $97 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 01 $91 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 01 $210 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 4, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 93¢ $47 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 7d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 8d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 8d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $37 23d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $37 23d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 92¢ $37 37d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 93¢ $37 37d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $47 96d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $48 96d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $43 96d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $43 96d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $41 96d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $41 97d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $42 97d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $42 97d
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 89¢ $41 97d
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 91¢ $42 97d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $46 97d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 97d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $44 97d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $44 98d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $47 98d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $47 98d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $43 98d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $43 99d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $48 99d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $48 99d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $50 99d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $50 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.21 · official $47.21 (match) · 577 history records