Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:40:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc00a…29e8 crypto 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-2%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate82%86W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 89d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$134
sports 13% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -6.6% -15.5% 82% 34% -13.7%
≤30d 104 -6.6% -15.5% 82% 34% -13.7%
≤90d 105 -6.1% -15.0% 82% 34% -12.3%
all 105 -6.1% -15.0% 82% 34% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 34% -12.3%
10% -23.2% 15% -20.7%
15% -30.6% 6% -28.4%
20% -37.4% 2% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$15 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses86 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage89d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $11 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $11 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 436 history records