Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:40:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C0 0xc00c…64bc crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$52 (-10%) realized −$65 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate19%9W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$54
14 days+$54
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$38
other 19% +$26
world 6% −$30
finance 2% +$35
tech 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-60.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +45.4% +31.5% 100% 100% +35.2%
≤30d 4 +45.4% +31.5% 100% 100% +35.2%
≤90d 4 +45.4% +31.5% 100% 100% +35.2%
all 47 -56.7% -60.8% 19% 17% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.8% 17% -15.4%
10% -64.6% 15% -23.5%
15% -68.0% 15% -30.9%
20% -71.1% 13% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$6 · ×3.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses9 / 38
Open positions5
Markets (closed)47 / 52
History coverage164d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June? Yes 11¢ 48¢ $10 $45 +$35 (+348%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-36%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-58%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $32 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 10? Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 10? Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 25? Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 25? Feb 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 1 Feb 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on February 17? Feb 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 14? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 15? Feb 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 15? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 15? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on February 15? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on February 15? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on February 15? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on February 15? Feb 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on February 1 Feb 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on February 1 Feb 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 14? Feb 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 14? Feb 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 14? Feb 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 1 Feb 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 1 Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on February 14? Feb 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on February 14? Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on February 14? Feb 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 14? Feb 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 1 Feb 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 11? Feb 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 11? Feb 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 7? Feb 05 $16 +$90 +566%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on February 1? Jan 31 $8 +$8 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Jan 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on January 31? Jan 27 $20 −$16 -82%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on January 31? Jan 27 $20 −$17 -83%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on February 1? Jan 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on January 28? Jan 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on January 29? Jan 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on January 29? Jan 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jan 25 $40 +$34 +86%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on January 28? Jan 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 24 $20 +$13 +63%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026? Jan 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 2h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $6 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 19? BUY No 96¢ $5 99d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 109d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 10? BUY No 14¢ $2 113d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 10? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 113d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 25? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 127d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 25? BUY No 3¢ $2 127d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 1 BUY Yes 9¢ $3 135d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on February 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 135d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 137d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 15? BUY No 11¢ $4 137d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 15? BUY No 7¢ $2 137d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 137d
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on February 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 137d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on February 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 137d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on February 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 137d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on February 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.90 · official $60.90 (match) · 83 history records