Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:29:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C0 0xc010…e729 politics 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$3
politics 17% +$4
other 11% +$2
economics 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 4% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -10.2% -18.7% 0% 0% -18.7%
≤30d 10 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 10 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 0% -10.1%
all 31 +2.5% -7.2% 42% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 6% -9.2%
10% -16.1% 6% -17.9%
15% -24.2% 3% -25.8%
20% -31.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage308d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 97¢ 97¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $50 −$5 -10%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $49 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $42 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $45 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $37 +$1 +4%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 24 $6 +$2 +30%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $4 +$2 +40%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 02 $5 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 24 $38 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 US Open? Aug 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $42 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 53¢ $45 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 59¢ $50 9h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $9 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $20 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $21 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $33 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $16 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $6 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $37 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $42 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $48 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $31 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $16 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $25 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $29 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $54 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $43 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $8 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $51 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $20 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $31 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.62 · official $48.62 (match) · 83 history records