Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:36:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc010…18d3 other 267 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$123 (-0%) realized −$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 256L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$13
14 days−$20
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$22
sports 31% −$16
crypto 6% −$4
economics 6% −$3
politics 6% −$2
culture 5% −$4
world 4% −$81
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 98 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 190 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 266 -0.3% -9.8% 4% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 256
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)266 / 267
History coverage136d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $107 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 15 $360 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $126 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $194 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $128 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $330 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $239 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $123 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $238 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $135 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $184 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $177 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $227 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $322 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $136 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $181 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $371 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $105 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $170 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $64 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $92 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $319 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $179 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $197 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $150 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $143 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $116 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $311 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $41 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $144 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 07 $212 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $169 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $203 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $228 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $16 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $16 3h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $16 6h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $16 8h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $16 9h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $16 11h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $16 12h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $16 13h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 15h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $16 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 19h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $16 21h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $16 22h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 27h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 28h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $16 31h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $16 32h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 33h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 35h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 36h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 38h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $16 42h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $16 43h
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $16 45h
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $16 46h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $16 2d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $17 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.90 · official $15.90 (match) · 1553 history records