Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:50:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C0 0xc011…0a62 sports 706 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,700 (+1%) realized +$1,708 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate69%481W / 220L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$1,028est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$654now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$4,107
other 30% +$553
crypto 14% −$93
world 4% −$5
politics 0% +$109
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +1.2% -8.4% 78% 34% -10.0%
≤30d 287 +0.1% -9.4% 63% 34% -11.3%
≤90d 658 +2.8% -7.0% 68% 43% -10.1%
all 701 +3.3% -6.5% 69% 43% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 43% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 30% -19.7%
15% -23.7% 20% -27.4%
20% -31.1% 12% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$108 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$654
Realized+$1,708
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses481 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$1,028
Open positions5
Markets (closed)701 / 706
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$283
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 701 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 77¢ 74¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 94¢ 94¢ $188 $189 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $142 $141 −$1 (-1%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 95¢ 95¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 60¢ $62 $60 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $900 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $367 +$19 +5%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$16 +16%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,000 +$4 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$17 +17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$23 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $107 +$12 +11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $1,200 +$1 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 +$1 +3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $201 +$1 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$40 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $400 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $900 +$1 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $342 −$195 -57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $130 −$104 -80%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $137 +$69 +50%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,190 +$13 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,000 +$4 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $100 −$7 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $168 −$73 -43%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $76 +$9 +11%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 +$11 +11%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$10 -10%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $106 +$28 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $800 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $112 +$32 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $19 +$3 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $88 +$31 +35%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $71 +$83 +116%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 −$9 -19%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $80 +$1 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $280 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $45 +$11 +25%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,101 +$44 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $100 +$8 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $210 +$48 +23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $129 +$16 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $35 +$10 +28%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 11 $100 +$10 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $70 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 94¢ $90 20h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 94¢ $47 21h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 94¢ $16 24h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 94¢ $16 28h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $900 28h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 94¢ $19 30h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $42 31h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $117 37h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $4 38h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $4 38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 39h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 39h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,000 39h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 40h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No $6 41h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 41h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No $0 42h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No $3 42h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No $0 42h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No $1 42h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No $4 42h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No $1 42h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $12 42h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $10 43h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $8 46h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $2,000 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $118 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $654.39 · official $654.39 (match) · 3500 history records