Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C0 0xc014…dd05 crypto 312 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$75 (+2%) realized +$71 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%300W / 3L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$56
14 days+$65
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$81
politics 4% +$4
finance 2% −$19
other 2% +$1
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 278 +1.6% -8.1% 99% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 303 +1.7% -8.0% 99% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 303 +1.7% -8.0% 99% 0% -8.1%
all 303 +1.7% -8.0% 99% 0% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 0% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 0% -16.9%
15% -24.8% 0% -25.0%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses300 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)303 / 312
History coverage10d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 8h
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 99¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 13h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $20 14h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.95 · official $174.95 (match) · 620 history records