Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:14:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C0 0xc017…dec3 crypto 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-3%) realized −$28 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate47%94W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$34
other 11% +$9
politics 4% −$5
sports 3% −$2
world 2% −$5
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +115.4% +94.9% 100% 100% +94.9%
≤30d 11 +15.6% +4.6% 55% 45% +5.5%
≤90d 46 -1.4% -10.8% 39% 37% -5.3%
all 200 -9.6% -18.2% 47% 34% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 34% -12.3%
10% -26.0% 30% -20.7%
15% -33.2% 26% -28.4%
20% -39.7% 22% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses94 / 106
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions44
Markets (closed)200 / 244
History coverage157d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $8 +$3 (+62%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 43¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+91%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+78%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 21¢ 15¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 75¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 25 $1 $0 +9%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1 +$1 +83%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 -23%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 -21%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 20 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 08 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1 +$1 +110%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1 $0 +46%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1 −$1 -52%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 07 $1 +$2 +173%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $1 $0 +38%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 27 $1 +$2 +161%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 19 $5 +$4 +90%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 16 $1 +$3 +280%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 15 $1 +$2 +178%
Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Prem Apr 15 $1 +$2 +233%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 10 $2 +$4 +186%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Apr 01 $10 $0 -2%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-28? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
AI bubble burst in 2026? Mar 18 $5 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $1 +$1 +120%
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? Mar 04 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 02 $1 $0 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $2 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $4 11d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 20d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 57¢ $2 20d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 20d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 21d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 24d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 24d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 25d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 31d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 31d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 43¢ $2 31d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 35d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 35d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $1 35d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 35d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $1 35d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 35d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 35d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 23¢ $1 35d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 35d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.30 · official $49.30 (match) · 707 history records