Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc017…c979 weather 965 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate67%635W / 318L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days−$69
14 days−$12
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$64
tech 0% −$17
other 0% −$14
sports 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -12.7% -21.0% 74% 15% -10.8%
≤30d 543 -5.1% -14.2% 81% 12% -10.0%
≤90d 953 -4.7% -13.7% 67% 22% -10.4%
all 953 -4.7% -13.7% 67% 22% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 22% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 16% -19.0%
15% -29.5% 11% -26.8%
20% -36.4% 5% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$449
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses635 / 318
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)953 / 965
History coverage72d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 953 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 17? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Yes 95¢ 90¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 70¢ 99¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 74¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $5 −$4 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -55%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $5 −$3 -59%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 −$2 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +21%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -51%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $22 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $93 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $86 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $77 +$5 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 94¢ $100 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 74¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 70¢ $5 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 14h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 84¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 33¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 82¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $449.26 · official $449.26 (match) · 2271 history records