Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc018…7ed6 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-3%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%23W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$1
world 31% −$18
politics 10% −$1
sports 8% $0
tech 4% −$1
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -27.9% -34.8% 20% 0% -23.2%
≤30d 5 -27.9% -34.8% 20% 0% -23.2%
≤90d 5 -27.9% -34.8% 20% 0% -23.2%
all 46 -5.9% -14.9% 50% 0% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 0% -12.3%
10% -23.0% 0% -20.7%
15% -30.5% 0% -28.4%
20% -37.3% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses23 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage464d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $16 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$3 -16%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 −$1 -21%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 28 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $1 $0 +3%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 22 $3 $0 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 07 $10 $0 -1%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $10 $0 +3%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 30 $11 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? May 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'Abyss' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? May 23 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 21 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zach Edey win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'A Working Man' gross more than 17m on opening weekend? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Mar 28 $2 $0 -2%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? Mar 27 $1 $0 -42%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian Mar 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 13 $14 $0 +1%
Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No $0 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 31¢ $14 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $17 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 5d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $1 178d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 182d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? SELL No 94¢ $8 354d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 356d
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? SELL Yes $1 361d
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? SELL Yes $0 361d
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? SELL Yes $0 361d
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? SELL Yes $0 361d
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? SELL Yes $0 361d
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? SELL Yes $0 361d
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? SELL Yes $0 361d
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? SELL Yes $0 361d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 96¢ $8 363d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? SELL No 98¢ $7 363d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.12 · official $29.12 (match) · 136 history records