Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C0 0xc01e…9141 other 6 markets active 4d ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$145 (-20%) realized −$145 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$2
other 36% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 6 -36.6% -42.7% 17% 0% -27.3%
≤90d 6 -36.6% -42.7% 17% 0% -27.3%
all 6 -36.6% -42.7% 17% 0% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.7% 0% -27.3%
10% -48.1% 0% -34.2%
15% -53.2% 0% -40.6%
20% -57.7% 0% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$29 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$145
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage6d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $237 −$3 -1%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 Jun 16 $238 $0 +0%
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 11 $75 −$75 -100%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? Jun 11 $78 −$10 -12%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 10 $54 −$54 -100%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Jun 10 $57 −$4 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records